I believe Manny Pacquiao will beat Floyd Mayweather. Based on my review of Mayweather’s fights, especially his fight against Hatton years ago when he was much younger and his most recent fight against Argentine Maidana, Mayweather can be hit with solid punches.
In the Hatton fight, Mayweather was outpointed by Hatton in three of the first six rounds. Pacquiao is more skillful and stronger than Hatton. Pacquiao has more weapons in his arsenal like jabs, right hooks and a very powerful left cross. Pacquiao’s power punch, the left cross, can be very effective against Mayweather’s left shoulder roll defense. Mayweather is right handed, with his left shoulder forward and which he uses very effectively against another right handed opponent. He cannot use that left shoulder roll against Pacquiao’s left cross. Mayweather was able to adjust in the later rounds, scoring big punches that culminated in a tenth round KO of an already softened up Hatton.
Pacquiao has a much better defense than Hatton. With his style of throwing around 90 punches per round, he can score a lot of damaging punches on Mayweather.
Can Manny Pacquiao hit Mayweather?
Of course! In the Maidana fight, a very aggressive Maidana scored a lot of clean hits that hurt Mayweather. It was a slugfest, and if Maidana could do that against Mayweather, Pacquiao will do a lot better because Maidana’s skills and power are inferior to those of Pacquiao.
Maidana scored 185 solid, power punches our of 540 thrown compared to 178 by Mayweather. 185 power punches hit Mayweather, that’s a lot! That’s clear proof that Mayweather can be hit a lot. Mayweather made up by scoring more jabs (52 vs. only 36 by Maidana).
Maidana averaged around 70 punches per round, scoring 34%; Pacquiao can do a lot better than that, maybe close to 90 average per round and with a better percentage of around 45%.
Maidana did so well that the outcome was in the balance even up to the later rounds. And analysts called it a close fight.
Conclusion
Mayweather can be hit a lot. And Pacquiao has the skills and power to hit Mayweather and hit him hard a lot. Pacquiao has developed a good defense since the last Marquez fight as shown by his easy handling of Bradley whose boxing skills come closest to that of Mayweather. Pacquiao will overwhelm Mayweather with a steady attack of around 90 power punches per round.
Mayweather can run, but he can’t hide.
My fearless forecast:
As long as Pacquiao maintains a relentless, but careful attack (don’t do the Banzai attack he did against Marquez), throwing his usual 90 or so punches per round, it will be Pacquiao by stoppage in 10 rounds or less or by a clear decision with Mayweather’s face badly beaten up.
(Editor’s note: Roilo Golez, former congressman and Secretary of National Defence, was a champion boxer himself at Westpoint Military Academy.)