China’s reclamation blitz in the Spratly Islands continues unabated, despite condemnation from fellow claimants and outside nations. Chinese dredging ships have been hard at work expanding at least seven features: Cuarteron, Gaven, Hughes, Fiery Cross, Johnson South, Mischief, and Subi reefs. Their work is expected to be completed in a matter of months, presenting the region with a fait accompli.
While there is plenty of opportunity for conflict between China and Vietnam, the most likely scenario for an escalation to violence in the South China Sea involves a run-in between Chinese and Philippine forces, which could drag the United States. Between Scarborough Shoal, the ongoing cat and mouse game at Second Thomas Shoal, and continued tensions over Reed Bank, the opportunities for a skirmish are high. That has only been made truer by the increasing number of Chinese paramilitary units in the Spratlys, whose position is clearly bolstered by the reclamation work. (AP)