The geopolitical premise is that there seems to be no solution yet on site. First, China will never submit to a court where they may lose. Philippine efforts at The Hague will lead to nowhere. Second, China is in despair for energy to keep its economic growth afloat, without which there may be one cosmic crash never before seen in human history. Third, China fears US ‘encirclement’ due to Obama’s Pivot to Asia, which will bring 70% of US naval forces into the Asia Pacific. China believes confrontation with the US is inevitable, and they are preparing feverishly for it. They will resort to brinkmanship in facing the US Navy in the Spratleys. They are right now militarizing the Spratleys on a massive scale, pouring billions of dollars.
China is working feverishly to put up what is perceived as three large naval bases with long runways at Fiery Cross (Kagitingan) Reef and Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal in the Spratleys, and at Woody (Yongxing) Island in the Paracels. They are working 24/7 before they are pre-empted by a US initiative. This is a geopolitical game changer that may craft the destiny of the Asia Pacific. This development implies 1) rapid military escalation on both sides in the next ten years, not to mention Japan’s participation, 2) the inevitability of a US-China naval showdown, 3) the Philippines becoming a major collateral damage. The Filipino will be a pawn in a battle of giants, and may die for Pivot to Asia which is not to his interest.
China is building structures in six other reef facilities (there may be others) — 1) Mischief (Panganiban), reputed to have oil and gas, 2) Johnson South (Mabini or Chigua), near Johnson North controlled by the Vietnamese, 3) Kennan, 4) Gaven (Burgos), 5) Cuarteron (Calderon/Huayang), and 6) Subi (Zamora). Military observers say this is tantamount to a full scale invasion of marine territories of Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
In late July 2015, a US Navy P8 surveillance plane reported 2,000 acres reclaimed by China in just two years of massive dredging and reclamation at Fiery Cross. China admits Fiery Cross can host a military facility, and says, if the US tries to stop them, there will be war.
The naval base at Woody would protect oil rigs close to Vietnam. Fiery Cross and Second Thomas are seen as strategic central bases. Fiery Cross has a 3-kilometer runway which can host warplanes and missiles with a range of 1,000 kms. or more. China is also building a 300-meter deep-sea port that can accommodate undersea nuclear missile silos and nuclear submarine berths, similar to those at the old Subic naval base, a carrier refuelling depot, and a large rapid deployment force.
Once completed, China’s perceived twin naval-air-force bases at Fiery Cross and Second Thomas could easily dwarf the US Subic-Clark Field bases. China will have a military edge over the entire South China Sea on a 2,000-kilometer radius, with satellite-driven radars, mobile twin-hulled mini-carriers with deadly drones, stealth warplanes that can reach Subic or Clark in minutes. The P8 surveillance was suspected to have originated from Clark Field.
The 8 defense locations the US wants on Philippine soil, if approved by the Supreme Court under the new mutual defense deal called EDCA, will pit China’s Fiery Cross and Second Thomas naval bases against the eight EDCA US defense system, exposing Philippne population centers near the eight EDCA points if there is a war.
China knows the US is helpless to pre-empt the twin naval bases, that is why it is so brazen as to continue rapid militarization. China knows the US cannot afford to go to war at this time. All it can do is sit and watch, make diplomatic threats, continue daredevil surveillance and report progress to the international media. Meanwhile, China is pouring billions of dollars on the Spratleys.
Counter-Game Changer — Naval Blockade
The US is also capable of brinkmanship. A possible US counter-game-changer is a pre-emptive naval blockade of the Fiery Cross and Second Thomas naval-bases-to-be, similar to that during the Cuban Crisis, to stop construction. The blockade can pre-empt a future bigger war, but it can also trigger a sudden all-out war.
To China, a US naval blockade is ridiculous and is not going to happen. Will the US have an Admiral Patton in response? The US must keep in mind that the glory of carrier duels against Japan in World War II is all gone. With the advent of intelligent missiles, carriers are now vulnerable. A naval war today will be far more deadly with Mac-10 missiles, invisible nuclear subs and killer stealth-drones. It is in fact unpredictable, considering that both sides have secret weapons no one knows about. China’s arsenals have secretly grown tenfold in the last two decades.
The Ground Force Factor
Any US-China confrontation in the South China Sea will essentially be naval — warships, carriers with warplanes, subs, missiles. The presence of Chinese troops at Fiery Cross and the eight other reefs can be a critical factor since the US cannot just send troops, as evident in Syria against the ISIS. Rapid mobilization of troops in strategic reefs and isles is essential in a major confrontation within scattered islands in a vast area.
The Filipino can be the major collateral damage, reduced to a David in between two Goliaths with no slingshot on hand in his own backyard. The US may pressure President Aquino to field more Filipino troops in the absence of American troops. This would make the Filipinos pawns in a war of giants. We are not talking of bravery here but lives in a one-sided battle.
The best Filipinos can do at this time is continue and expand ground surveillance and intelligence teams to report real time developments. In Second Thomas Reef, where Filipino soldiers occupied an abandoned hospital ship named BRP Sierra Madre, they reported Chinese naval encroachments, as they happened.
The scant scattered presence of Filipino troops in ten reefs can easily be over-run by large Chinese forces or naval fire during heightened conflict.
China will not hesitate to be a bully, as in Tibet, unmindful of its international image. Filipino troops may be ‘safe’ for now, until there is a confrontation. (Source: China-Spratley-Presence).
China is not Invincible
China reportedly has a powerful lobby against a new bill defining Philippine territory. Chinese companies are secretly fielding Chinese labor in Philippine contracts. Some have been interviewed by Media.
Towards a Nuclear Confrontation and World War III
The optimists say there will be no war because both sides cannot afford one at this time. True, but for how long? When an energy crisis or a deep recession occurs, will push come to shove? The pessimists say World War III is just a matter of time. China is courting anti-American Islamic nations for trade, and may yet dominate the Middle East, using bread not bullets, unlike the Americans. War may fuel the global economy, but it may also fuel global financial meltdown or an apocalyptic nuclear holocaust.