With the national elections happening this month, I dare make these fearless analyses of who would be elected President and Vice-President of the Republic for the next six years. Judging from what I read in the papers and assuming the surveys are indicators of what is to come, the candidates are “placed” in the race for the palace in the following order: Rodrigo Duterte and Grace Poe are tied on the first place, followed by Jejomar Binay, Mar Roxas, and Miriam Santiago.
As of this writing, it seems that Duterte and Poe are now the leading candidates, while Binay and Roxas are close behind. Santiago appears to be lagging behind due to concerns about her health. She also lacks political machinery. Duterte and Poe are both riding on the “bandwagon” and “populism” factors, while Roxas and Binay have both political machineries on a national level and either might bolt over Duterte and Poe come election time.
In the Vice-Presidential race, it looks Bong Bong Marcos, Chiz Escudero are in the forefront, while Leni Robredo is a close third. Alan Cayetano did not gain the preference with Duterte, while Gringo Honasan is barely mentioned in the race.
All leading contenders know that both Presidential and Vice-Presidential races are tight. I assume that they also know where their partners presently stand. To be assured of victory, they must have thought of making drastic decisions in the days to come and may resort to “Laglag Deals” with the other parties.
Duterte knows that Marcos is stronger than his partner Cayetano, and Marcos also knows that his partner Santiago has no chance of winning. To overtake Poe and have a big margin over Binay and Roxas, would Duterte consider to make a deal with Marcos by dropping Cayetano? And Marcos can easily drop Santiago in favor of Duterte to a have a jumpstart over Escudero and Robredo. That would make a formidable Duterte-Marcos team. As a plus factor for Marcos, he could end up as President if something happens to Duterte, considering that Duterte may step on too many people’s feet, especially from drug lords, smugglers, and other criminal elements.
Looking at another angle, Marcos who is a shrewd political strategist like his father, may also make a double-barrelled gamble. He may also make a deal with Binay. Marcos would be happy to have Binay win the presidential election with him as Vice-President, with a foresight that if Binay is disqualified after the election due to massive fraud charges, then he would be handed the Presidency on a silver platter. In the case of Binay, he would gladly accept the deal with Marcos, knowing that his partner Honasan is a no-win candidate.
What is now the scenario for Roxas to win the Presidency? He would not make a deal with Marcos or Escudero, much less with Cayetano. He is stuck with Robredo. And Robredo would not make any deal with anybody. While I believe Roxas is morally qualified to be President, his previous indiscretions on his various decisions is dragging him behind the race. Also, his association with the incumbent President, instead of being a plus factor may instead be a minus factor in his candidacy. He may be relying on the possibility that the “Picos” machines, through the control of the current administration and the Liberal Party, could be manipulated in his favor. What I am afraid of is the Liberty Party might trade Roxas with Poe, just to be assured that the Liberal Party would be in power for the next six years, with either Robredo or Cayetano as Vice-President.
Looking at a different scenario. What if Binay has already made a deal with the various local government officials he had previously visited, and will flood with money the electorate come election time. To assure himself of victory, he might have also made some “arrangements” with the local election officials that maybe on the take. That would catapult him to the Presidency without making a deal with anybody. This may look a very peaceful outcome, but let us not discount the “military intervention” after the election. Knowing that Binay has been involved in various graft and corruption charges, while still not proven, and having the knowledge that Binay used his money to win the election, what would the military do? Would this not be a ripe situation for them to stage a “coup de tat”, unseat Binay and establish a military junta? I dread not to think of the consequences.
Why is the United States of America very silent on the American Citizenship issue of Poe? Could Poe be an American lackey, being married to a US citizen and a former American soldier with the US government silently supporting her candidacy and even helping on her two election disqualifications cases (citizenship and residency). Could this be the X-Factor that nobody has considered in his analysis. Could the CIA have influenced the decision to let Poe run as President, and made “representations” to relegate her residency requirements into the garbage disposal bin? It has been known that the CIA has long tentacles in their discreet operations.
Why are people gravitating to Duterte? I remember the Tagalog saying “Ang taong nagigipit, kahit sa patalim ay kumakapit.” And what about Binay, why is it that despite the much publicized graft cases against him, people are still saying they will vote for him? Could it be the poor people’s concept of “money brings food to the table and feed my family.”
In the case of Poe, there might be two X-Factors carrying her: the “Masa” and “FPJ movie idolatry.”
Why is Roxas lagging behind despite his good credentials and having no corruption cases. Could it be that the stigma of the Yolanda typhoon and Mamasapano Massacre still lingers in the minds of the people, or is it his association with Pres. Aquino?
What about the “Woman’s Factor.” The women’s vote could either or both bring Poe and Robredo over the line. And the Philippines could have a first in the world “First Women President and Vice-President” to lead a country.
I am not a qualified voter but personally, I would prefer Miriam Santiago and Leni Robredo to win the elections. But this is what we call in Tagalog “Suntok sa Buwan” or aim for the moon.